Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:00:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
35 0x3510…8203 sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$504 (+28%) realized +$504 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +155% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +131% what you keep after slip
Net edge+131%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate18%2W / 9L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$2
sports 41% +$505
politics 2% $0
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)+130.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -50.1% -54.8% 0% 0% -18.7%
≤90d 11 +155.2% +130.9% 18% 9% -3.1%
all 11 +155.2% +130.9% 18% 9% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +130.9% 9% -3.1%
10% +108.8% 9% -12.4%
15% +88.6% 9% -20.9%
20% +70.1% 9% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +155% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$324 vs −$29 · ×11.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.44 per $1 lost it wins $4.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$504
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses2 / 9
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage87d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 29 $446 $0 -0%
Spread: Northern Ireland (-2.5) Jun 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Tala'ea El Gaish SC (-2.5) May 19 $531 +$39 +7%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? May 18 $538 −$2 -0%
Spread: Çaykur Rizespor (-2.5) May 15 $62 −$62 -100%
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? May 15 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Vanraure Hachinohe FC (-2.5) Apr 09 $12 +$610 +5163%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027? Apr 08 $16 $0 +0%
Spread: NEOM SC (-1.5) Apr 08 $53 $0 +0%
Spread: Elche CF (-1.5) Apr 03 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 03 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $446 36m
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $446 1h
Spread: Northern Ireland (-2.5) BUY Northern Ireland 7¢ $24 25d
Spread: Northern Ireland (-2.5) BUY Northern Ireland 7¢ $26 25d
Spread: Tala'ea El Gaish SC (-2.5) BUY Pharco FC 93¢ $531 42d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $151 42d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $151 42d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $100 42d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $134 42d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $538 42d
Spread: Çaykur Rizespor (-2.5) BUY Çaykur Rizespor 5¢ $35 45d
Spread: Çaykur Rizespor (-2.5) BUY Çaykur Rizespor 5¢ $27 45d
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $31 45d
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $19 45d
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $25 45d
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $25 45d
Spread: Vanraure Hachinohe FC (-2.5) BUY Vanraure Hachinohe FC 2¢ $8 82d
Spread: Vanraure Hachinohe FC (-2.5) BUY Vanraure Hachinohe FC 2¢ $4 82d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $9 82d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 82d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 82d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 82d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 82d
Spread: NEOM SC (-1.5) SELL NEOM SC 8¢ $35 82d
Spread: NEOM SC (-1.5) SELL NEOM SC 8¢ $18 82d
Spread: NEOM SC (-1.5) BUY NEOM SC 8¢ $18 83d
Spread: NEOM SC (-1.5) BUY NEOM SC 8¢ $35 83d
Spread: Elche CF (-1.5) BUY Elche CF 6¢ $19 87d
Spread: Elche CF (-1.5) BUY Elche CF 6¢ $13 87d
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 7¢ $22 87d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records