Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:45:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3511…33c8 world 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 425d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$4
politics 34% $0
crypto 18% −$1
other 14% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -8.2% -16.9% 0% 0% -12.8%
≤30d 8 -4.8% -13.9% 38% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 8 -4.8% -13.9% 38% 0% -10.9%
all 18 -2.1% -11.4% 39% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 0% -10.3%
10% -19.9% 0% -18.9%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

425d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage425d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 83¢ 82¢ $36 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $11 −$4 -38%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $37 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $19 $0 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $40 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $49 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Dec 23 $2 $0 +4%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Dec 15 $2 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 03 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? May 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? Apr 24 $12 $0 -4%
Will the Giants draft Travis Hunter? Apr 23 $13 $0 -3%
Will Elena Lasconi win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian Apr 23 $3 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 23 $108 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? Apr 22 $122 −$1 -0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the Northwest Territories seat in th Apr 22 $134 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $36 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $3 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 18h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $36 21h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 83¢ $37 26h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $22 31h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $8 31h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $8 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $22 33h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $19 36h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $19 40h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $37 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $20 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $17 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $37 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $37 2d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $41 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $40 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $40 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $40 17d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $37 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 92¢ $36 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $9 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $9 24d
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $2 178d
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $2 353d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? BUY No 98¢ $2 367d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.48 · official $35.48 (match) · 59 history records