Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:52:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
35 0x3512…4a6a crypto 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 598d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$62 (+0%) realized +$61 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate94%105W / 7L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$330per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 60% +$71
crypto 39% −$6
other 0% +$3
tech 0% +$1
world 0% −$9
sports 0% +$2
economics 0% +$3
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 8 +2.7% -7.1% 100% 12% -9.3%
≤90d 31 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 3% -9.4%
all 112 +4.6% -5.3% 94% 14% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 14% -9.4%
10% -14.4% 10% -18.1%
15% -22.7% 7% -26.0%
20% -30.3% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 61% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.06 per $1 lost it wins $2.06
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

598d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized+$61
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses105 / 7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)112 / 115
History coverage598d
Avg bet$330
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $107 $107 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 84¢ 93¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+11%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 17? Jun 19 $111 $0 +0%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $52,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on June 5? Jun 11 $105 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 03 $3 $0 +4%
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May? May 31 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 15? May 27 $252 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9? May 13 $252 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? May 05 $276 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m May 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $230 end of April? May 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 28? Apr 29 $261 $0 +0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 Apr 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 25? Apr 27 $255 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $258 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 20? Apr 21 $272 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on April 17? Apr 19 $269 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 13? Apr 16 $263 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $257 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? Apr 10 $274 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 4? Apr 05 $262 $0 +0%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026? Apr 03 $4 $0 +1%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Apr 03 $6 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $258 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for math on March 31? Apr 01 $4 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $250 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 29? Mar 29 $250 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on March 25? Mar 26 $244 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $249 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $251 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? Mar 18 $257 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 10? Mar 14 $262 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on March 8? Mar 09 $261 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 08 $267 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 1? Mar 06 $266 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 27? Feb 28 $261 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 25? Feb 26 $265 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 2 Feb 23 $257 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 20? Feb 21 $262 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 18? Feb 19 $262 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on February 1 Feb 16 $263 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 14? Feb 15 $263 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on February 12? Feb 13 $263 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 10? Feb 11 $253 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on February 8? Feb 08 $264 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 6? Feb 07 $263 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on February 3? Feb 05 $252 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in January? Feb 02 $6 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $107 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $111 3d
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 99¢ $6 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $52,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $105 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $105 16d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $3 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $252 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $252 42d
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On BUY No 100¢ $6 43d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May? BUY No 86¢ $5 43d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 96¢ $3 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $276 47d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $261 53d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $255 56d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $2 57d
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $230 end of April? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 57d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 23? BUY No 100¢ $258 58d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $272 61d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $269 64d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $263 68d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $257 70d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 BUY No 100¢ $6 72d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $274 73d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 4? BUY No 100¢ $262 77d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $258 79d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $250 81d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 29? BUY No 100¢ $250 84d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $244 88d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 22? BUY No 100¢ $249 91d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $251 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.95 · official $117.95 (match) · 553 history records