Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:36:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

35
0x3518…1b0f
sports · 152 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$8 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$11 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14
Realized+$11
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses65 / 75
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions12
Markets (closed)140 / 152
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day271.6
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 12 History 140 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Los Angeles Dodgers 74¢ 78¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 54¢ 42¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-23%)
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Athletics 49¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+36%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Over 62¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
ITF Los Angeles: Alina Shcherbinina vs Kaitlyn Carnicella Alina Shcherbinina 77¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell Henrique Rocha 47¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Sho Shimabukuro 42¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-6.5) Toronto Tempo 81¢ 69¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Arch (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs Arch 38¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Legacy 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs G2 Esports 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Alliance - Map 1 Winner Metizport 67¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 +$3 +325%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon Jun 14 $2 +$1 +69%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 14 $3 +$1 +45%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 14 $2 $0 +23%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 −$1 -25%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 $0 -14%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +85%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$1 +34%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Himeno Sakatsume vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 $0 +46%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Set 2 Winner: Vekic vs Raducanu Jun 14 $1 $0 -18%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 14 $2 +$3 +150%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro Jun 14 $2 +$2 +91%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$2 -34%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$2 +151%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $2 +$1 +68%
ITF Kayseri: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Maxwell Mckennon Jun 14 $2 −$1 -42%
ITF Monastir: Dominick Mosejczuk vs Cesar Bouchelaghem Jun 14 $3 −$2 -58%
ITF Madrid: Ruth Roura Llaverias vs Briyana Ivanova Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz (BO3) - EPL World Series Southe Jun 14 $3 $0 -4%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Sean Cuenin vs Stefano D'agostino Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
Set 1 Winner: Sun vs Kalinina Jun 14 $1 +$1 +64%
ITF Guimaraes: Aliona Falei vs Savannah Broadus Jun 14 $3 +$6 +184%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bartunkova vs. Gauff: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie SELL Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $1 5m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 72¢ $1 9m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 72¢ $1 12m
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 42¢ $1 12m
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Athletics 49¢ $1 15m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 BUY Over 62¢ $1 15m
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-6.5) BUY Toronto Tempo 81¢ $1 18m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $1 24m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 80¢ $1 24m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $1 28m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 53¢ $1 30m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 53¢ $1 31m
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group SELL 4ikibamboni 100¢ $2 38m
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner SELL Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $1 39m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Under 90¢ $2 39m
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon SELL Nadia Podoroska 100¢ $3 39m
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Henrique Rocha 47¢ $1 1h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 40¢ $1 1h
ITF Los Angeles: Alina Shcherbinina vs Kaitlyn Carnicella BUY Alina Shcherbinina 77¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 23¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 30¢ $1 1h
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon BUY Nadia Podoroska 50¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY 4ikibamboni 51¢ $1 1h
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon BUY Nadia Podoroska 70¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Arch (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs BUY Arch 38¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Alliance - Map 1 Winner BUY Metizport 67¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie BUY Nuclear TigeRES 77¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 83¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 12.5 Total Corners SELL Under 66¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 140 +8.6% -1.8% 46% 44% -6.0%
≤30d 140 +8.6% -1.8% 46% 44% -6.0%
≤90d 140 +8.6% -1.8% 46% 44% -6.0%
all 140 +8.6% -1.8% 46% 44% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover271.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.8% 44% -6.0%
10% ← realistic here -11.2% 40% -15.0%
15% -19.8% 35% -23.2%
20% -27.6% 28% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.63 · official $13.07 (match) · 455 history records