Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:00:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

35 0x3519…106a crypto 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$328 (-7%) realized −$54 · open −$274

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip

Net edge-41%after slip

Net WR13%break-even

Win rate33%5W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$263per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit82%portable

Net worth$1,886now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$93

7 days+$93

14 days+$93

30 days+$93

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +13%

net ROI/market (all)-40.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+19.1%	+7.8%	100%	100%	+7.8%
≤30d	1	+19.1%	+7.8%	100%	100%	+7.8%
≤90d	1	+19.1%	+7.8%	100%	100%	+7.8%
all	15	-34.6%	-40.8%	33%	13%	-25.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-40.8%	13%	-25.0%
10%	-46.5%	0%	-32.2%
15%	-51.7%	0%	-38.7%
20%	-56.4%	0%	-44.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 91% · top 2 99% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +19% too few recent

Fragile wins

60% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -35% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -40% → late -30% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$20 vs −$35 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.29 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage

Net worth$1,886

Realized−$54

Unrealized−$274

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses5 / 10

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)15 / 17

History coverage144d

Avg bet$263

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	16¢	16¢	$1,860	$1,886	+$26 (+1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score	No	74¢	0¢	$300	$0	−$300 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$484	+$93	+19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Jan 28	$101	−$51	-51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 1AM ET	Jan 28	$245	−$162	-66%
US government shutdown Saturday?	Jan 28	$328	−$18	-5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 12AM ET	Jan 28	$172	−$20	-12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 26?	Jan 26	$25	$0	-0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $84,000 on January 26?	Jan 26	$14	$0	+3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on January 26	Jan 26	$10	+$1	+8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 25?	Jan 25	$40	+$7	+18%
LoL: KT Rolster vs OKSavingsBank BRION - Game 2 Winner	Jan 25	$40	−$40	-100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 25?	Jan 25	$142	$0	+0%
LoL: KT Rolster vs OKSavingsBank BRION - Game 1 Winner	Jan 25	$57	−$57	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 8AM ET	Jan 25	$5	$0	-2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 6AM ET	Jan 25	$6	−$5	-91%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $7 mil	Jan 25	$10	$0	-2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	BUY Yes	17¢	$288	38m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	74¢	$302	44m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	88¢	$577	1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	73¢	$484	1h
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	SELL Yes	16¢	$501	1h
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	BUY Yes	16¢	$19	42d
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	BUY Yes	16¢	$1,821	42d
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	BUY Yes	17¢	$359	43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	BUY Up	86¢	$51	140d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 1AM ET	SELL Up	100¢	$51	140d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 1AM ET	BUY Up	91¢	$47	140d
US government shutdown Saturday?	SELL No	24¢	$47	140d
US government shutdown Saturday?	BUY No	25¢	$49	140d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	SELL Down	18¢	$18	140d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 1AM ET	SELL Down	6¢	$31	140d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 1AM ET	BUY Down	34¢	$168	140d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 1AM ET	BUY Down	43¢	$30	140d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 12AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$156	140d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 12AM ET	BUY Up	96¢	$152	140d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 12AM ET	BUY Down	38¢	$20	140d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$50	140d
US government shutdown Saturday?	SELL No	24¢	$264	140d
US government shutdown Saturday?	BUY No	26¢	$251	141d
US government shutdown Saturday?	BUY No	21¢	$25	142d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 26?	SELL No	98¢	$25	142d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 26?	BUY No	98¢	$25	142d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $84,000 on January 26?	SELL No	100¢	$14	142d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on January 26	SELL No	96¢	$11	142d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $84,000 on January 26?	BUY No	97¢	$14	143d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on January 26	BUY No	88¢	$10	143d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,886.13 · official $1,886.13 (match) · 49 history records