Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:01:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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35 0x351a…f836 sports 1156 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 67d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$181 (+1%) realized +$244 · open −$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate52%594W / 538L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day42.9pace
Fees−$110est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$361now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$181
7 days−$330
14 days−$101
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% +$30
weather 31% +$60
crypto 23% −$212
other 2% −$21
tech 1% +$7
politics 1% +$5
world 1% −$13
finance 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 275 -5.2% -14.3% 58% 46% -14.1%
≤30d 562 -1.7% -11.0% 57% 48% -9.5%
≤90d 1132 -4.1% -13.2% 52% 45% -10.1%
all 1132 -4.1% -13.2% 52% 45% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 45% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 36% -18.7%
15% -29.1% 28% -26.5%
20% -36.0% 22% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$361
Realized+$244
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses594 / 538
Est. fees paid−$110
Open positions33
Markets (closed)1132 / 1156
History coverage68d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day42.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 1132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No 61¢ 57¢ $43 $40 −$2 (-6%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 50¢ 92¢ $20 $37 +$17 (+83%)
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? No 73¢ 97¢ $22 $29 +$7 (+33%)
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-4%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 78¢ 76¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-2%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? No 70¢ 50¢ $28 $20 −$8 (-29%)
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 5–10%? Yes 76¢ 94¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+24%)
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? No 64¢ 84¢ $13 $17 +$4 (+31%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 61¢ 56¢ $18 $17 −$2 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? Yes 35¢ 54¢ $11 $16 +$6 (+55%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? Yes 56¢ 64¢ $11 $13 +$1 (+13%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 31¢ 18¢ $22 $12 −$9 (-44%)
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? No 74¢ 60¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-20%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 35¢ 48¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+39%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? Yes 32¢ 44¢ $6 $9 +$2 (+39%)
Will the Republican Party win the LA-06 House seat? Yes 67¢ 85¢ $7 $8 +$2 (+27%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 46¢ 65¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+42%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Yes 8¢ 48¢ $1 $6 +$5 (+475%)
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Yes 83¢ 52¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-37%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 15¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-14%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? No 61¢ 32¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-48%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Yes 54¢ 8¢ $27 $4 −$23 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 256 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$8 -87%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $8 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 15 $21 −$15 -72%
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? Jun 15 $18 +$2 +8%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $12 +$6 +48%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $7 +$1 +16%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $7 +$13 +170%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 +$36 +770%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $21 −$14 -68%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $9 −$8 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $10 −$9 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $15 +$3 +18%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $7 +$13 +197%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 14 $39 −$14 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $7 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $10 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $24 −$23 -97%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $13 +$7 +54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $45 −$38 -85%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $25 −$2 -9%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $12 +$8 +65%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $16 +$14 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$9 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 13 $16 −$2 -14%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $20 −$16 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $29 +$17 +60%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-4.5) Jun 13 $7 −$6 -99%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $16 −$16 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $27 +$9 +34%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $15 +$5 +36%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $65 +$5 +8%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $8 +$20 +247%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $8 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -97%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 35¢ $7 4m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 10m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 99¢ $10 22m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL Yes 16¢ $6 23m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 56¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 54¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 53¢ $12 1h
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? SELL No 96¢ $19 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 81¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 56¢ $11 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 22¢ $5 3h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 89¢ $18 3h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 59¢ $12 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY Yes 83¢ $8 4h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S SELL D family 80¢ $8 15h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY D family 69¢ $7 15h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 38¢ $4 15h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 38¢ $8 15h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY Yes 42¢ $9 15h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 15h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $7 15h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 15h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $41 15h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 22h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 23h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 23h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? SELL Yes 60¢ $3 23h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 47¢ $9 24h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 47¢ $7 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $360.80 · official $360.18 (match) · 3500 history records