Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:06:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

35
0x351c…2364
world · 38 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$5 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses13 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage317d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 0 History 38 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $58 −$5 -9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $38 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $80 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $12 $0 +3%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $38 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $41 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $3 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $38 −$1 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $2 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $84 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $79 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $43 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $38 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 0.90–0.94ºC in July 2025? Aug 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 06 $6 $0 +2%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 03 $56 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times August 1–August 8? Aug 03 $4 $0 -2%
Will no leader be out in 2025? Aug 03 $7 $0 -1%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 03 $46 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 03 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 02 $19 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Aug 01 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 01 $54 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 25–August 1? Aug 01 $11 $0 +1%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 31 $11 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 31 $7 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 31 $59 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jul 31 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 51% −$5
other 19% $0
politics 14% $0
culture 9% $0
economics 5% $0
sports 2% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 61¢ $30 15m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 61¢ $3 15m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 67¢ $37 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 32¢ $5 42h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 32¢ $14 42h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 35¢ $16 44h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 35¢ $5 44h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $22 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $16 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $38 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $37 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $13 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 32¢ $12 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $37 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $33 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $5 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $41 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $41 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $9 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $9 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $30 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $7 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $9 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $6 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $23 5d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 5d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -0.5% -9.9% 38% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 15 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 15 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 0% -10.3%
all 38 -0.2% -9.7% 34% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 139 history records