Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:13:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

35 0x351e…6634 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$126 (+12%) realized +$126 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip

Net edge-17%after slip

Net WR54%break-even

Win rate54%7W / 6L

Drawdown54%max

Avg bet$68per market

Trades / day11.2pace

Kalshi-fit7%portable

Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +54%

net ROI/market (all)-10.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	-0.7%	-10.1%	54%	54%	+3.2%
≤30d	13	-0.7%	-10.1%	54%	54%	+3.2%
≤90d	13	-0.7%	-10.1%	54%	54%	+3.2%
all	13	-0.7%	-10.1%	54%	54%	+3.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.2 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-10.1%	54%	+3.2%
10%	-18.7%	38%	-6.6%
15%	-26.6%	23%	-15.7%
20%	-33.8%	15%	-23.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 35% · top 2 60% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -1% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -4% → late +2% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$40 vs −$26 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$124

Realized+$126

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)54%

Wins / losses7 / 6

Open positions2

Markets (closed)13 / 15

History coverage3d

Avg bet$68

Trades / day11.2

Drawdown54%

Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 13 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	47¢	46¢	$74	$73	−$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	78¢	78¢	$50	$50	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$173	+$21	+12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Jun 19	$36	−$36	-100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$92	+$99	+107%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$30	−$21	-69%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$152	+$39	+26%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$51	+$71	+139%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$48	−$47	-98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$77	+$22	+29%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 17	$49	−$1	-2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$50	−$50	-99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$22	+$9	+41%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$10	−$1	-14%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$101	+$21	+21%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	78¢	$50	1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$45	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$195	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	96¢	$148	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	BUY Down	31¢	$5	16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$26	16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$5	16h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$30	17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$25	17h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$51	21h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	47¢	$42	26h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	17¢	$9	29h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$30	40h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$162	43h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$61	44h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	73¢	$60	45h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$122	46h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	30¢	$48	2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	41¢	$51	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$99	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$77	2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	70¢	$29	2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	88¢	$48	2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	89¢	$49	2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$50	2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	72¢	$30	2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$31	2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	10¢	$9	2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	11¢	$10	2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	70¢	$22	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.53 · official $123.53 (match) · 34 history records