Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:14:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3520…1fa0 sports 245 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$16,184 (-10%) realized −$15,730 · open −$454
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%82W / 159L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$666per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1,171est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$246now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$565
7 days+$233
14 days+$1,731
30 days−$2,163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$5,651
other 26% −$938
world 16% −$4,135
crypto 3% −$2,978
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -2.5% -11.8% 42% 42% -8.5%
≤30d 60 +0.6% -9.0% 40% 40% -13.0%
≤90d 135 -11.1% -19.6% 36% 36% -19.0%
all 241 -11.9% -20.3% 34% 34% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 34% -16.7%
10% -27.9% 34% -24.7%
15% -34.9% 34% -32.0%
20% -41.2% 33% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$841) neutral
Persistence
early -16% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$967 vs −$582 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$246
Realized−$15,730
Unrealized−$454
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses82 / 159
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$1,171
Open positions2
Markets (closed)241 / 245
History coverage118d
Avg bet$666
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 241 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $200 $245 +$45 (+23%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 31¢ $500 $1 −$499 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 145 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1,016 +$1,112 +109%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $1,015 +$647 +64%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $409 −$400 -98%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 22 $382 −$375 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $1,266 −$1,266 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $716 −$716 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $512 +$1,869 +365%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $507 −$507 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $1,118 −$1,118 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $507 +$419 +83%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $235 −$229 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $608 +$524 +86%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $263 −$258 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $562 −$550 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $1,559 +$2,645 +170%
Spread: Canada (-4.5) Jun 19 $1,010 +$513 +51%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $817 −$800 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,536 −$1,515 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $611 +$889 +146%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,012 +$636 +63%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,021 −$1,000 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $507 −$500 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $511 −$500 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $507 +$401 +79%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $711 −$700 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $429 −$420 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $508 −$500 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $304 +$283 +93%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $509 +$740 +145%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $377 +$1,010 +268%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,022 +$2,978 +291%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $948 −$930 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $930 +$3,018 +324%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,028 −$2,000 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $2,638 −$2,600 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $510 −$500 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,224 −$1,200 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,016 +$1,155 +114%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $508 +$591 +116%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $230 +$538 +234%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,031 −$2,000 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,618 +$922 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,134 +$2,977 +262%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $241 −$235 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $508 −$500 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 14 $512 −$500 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $2,036 −$2,000 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $508 −$500 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1,016 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $510 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 85¢ $1,662 7h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $409 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1,015 9h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-3.5) BUY 16¢ $513 9h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 35¢ $382 9h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1,266 28h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $716 28h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $512 28h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $507 31h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $508 31h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $610 31h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $235 34h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $507 34h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $608 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Sweden 29¢ $102 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Sweden 27¢ $102 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Sweden 26¢ $59 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 28¢ $562 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Wi BUY 11¢ $308 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 36¢ $1,559 3d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $306 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $510 4d
Spread: Canada (-4.5) BUY Canada 66¢ $1,010 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $725 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $611 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $811 4d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 31¢ $1,021 5d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $1,012 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $246.15 · official $246.15 (match) · 432 history records