Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:48:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

35 0x3523…d541 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 34d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized +$32 · open −$34

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +29% what you keep after slip

Net edge+29%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$91per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$257now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 34d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+29.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+42.6%	+29.0%	100%	100%	+29.0%
≤30d	1	+42.6%	+29.0%	100%	100%	+29.0%
≤90d	1	+42.6%	+29.0%	100%	100%	+29.0%
all	1	+42.6%	+29.0%	100%	100%	+29.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+29.0%	100%	+29.0%
10%	+16.7%	100%	+16.7%
15%	+5.4%	100%	+5.4%
20%	-4.9%	0%	-4.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +43% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +43% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$30 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage

Net worth$257

Realized+$32

Unrealized−$34

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)1 / 4

History coverage34d

Avg bet$91

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	89¢	88¢	$99	$98	−$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	8¢	7¢	$100	$84	−$16 (-16%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	14¢	$92	$75	−$17 (-18%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$70	+$30	+43%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$99	2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	97¢	$99	2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	67¢	$70	10h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$94	33d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$103	33d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $257.31 · official $257.31 (match) · 39 history records