Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:30:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3527…4cc5 crypto 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$103 (+13%) realized +$26 · open +$77
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate34%21W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day21.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$202
other 11% +$130
sports 4% +$134
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +58.4% +43.3% 46% 38% +41.2%
≤30d 62 -6.4% -15.3% 34% 29% -11.2%
≤90d 62 -6.4% -15.3% 34% 29% -11.2%
all 62 -6.4% -15.3% 34% 29% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 29% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 27% -19.7%
15% -30.8% 26% -27.5%
20% -37.6% 19% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late +40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$8 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$77
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses21 / 41
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage12d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 42¢ $33 $110 +$77 (+234%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$4 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$19 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$5 -47%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $33 +$39 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$6 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $28 +$134 +477%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$4 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $23 +$13 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$16 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $56 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$31 +490%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 04 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 04 $22 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 04 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 04 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 04 $30 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 04 $8 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 04 $12 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 04 $19 +$14 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 04 $16 −$4 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 04 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 04 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 04 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$5 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 04 $4 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 04 $8 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$1 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.17 · official $110.17 (match) · 261 history records