Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:38:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3529…ba2a world 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$30 (-1%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%18W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$17
other 26% $0
politics 17% $0
sports 11% −$12
economics 4% $0
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.9% -10.3% 25% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 21 -1.9% -11.2% 29% 0% -11.6%
≤90d 64 -1.8% -11.2% 23% 0% -10.3%
all 71 -3.1% -12.3% 25% 0% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 0% -10.8%
10% -20.7% 0% -19.3%
15% -28.4% 0% -27.1%
20% -35.4% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses18 / 53
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage535d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $27 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $25 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $28 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $56 −$2 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $27 −$1 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $28 +$1 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $28 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 05 $27 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $27 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $72 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 27 $42 −$12 -28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $9 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 22 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $38 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $2 $0 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 20 $38 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $8 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $2 $0 -5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $40 $0 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $33 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $1 $0 -2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $39 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $82 −$1 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $41 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 16 $84 −$1 -1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $118 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $67 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $3 −$2 -61%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $6 $0 -2%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $85 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $2 $0 -4%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 10 $45 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 09 $44 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 09 $41 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 05 $2 $0 -3%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $27 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $27 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $28 20h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $28 20h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $25 44h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 46h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $28 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $28 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $15 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $11 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 68¢ $27 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $12 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $13 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 84¢ $27 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $28 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $11 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $17 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $29 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $28 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $14 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $14 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $7 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $7 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 10d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $18 10d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $28 10d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $27 12d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $11 12d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $17 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.54 · official $0.00 (match) · 245 history records