Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:18:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x352a…3d91 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$456 (-23%) realized −$456 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$612
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -18.2% -26.0% 27% 27% -37.7%
≤30d 11 -18.2% -26.0% 27% 27% -37.7%
≤90d 11 -18.2% -26.0% 27% 27% -37.7%
all 11 -18.2% -26.0% 27% 27% -37.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.0% 27% -37.7%
10% -33.1% 27% -43.6%
15% -39.6% 27% -49.1%
20% -45.5% 18% -54.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$159 vs −$136 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$456
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage5d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $126 −$27 -22%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $173 −$157 -91%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $16 +$7 +41%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $668 −$668 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $52 −$5 -10%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $593 +$374 +63%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $239 −$219 -91%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $42 +$95 +225%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $53 −$8 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 32¢ $99 30m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $126 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 1¢ $16 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 5h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 1¢ $22 5h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 1¢ $16 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $168 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $42 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 50¢ $47 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $52 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $104 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $522 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $967 46h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 3¢ $21 46h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 46h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 46h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 37¢ $210 47h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $11 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $8 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $574 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 12¢ $52 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 13¢ $18 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $17 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 7¢ $16 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $51 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 15¢ $44 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $53 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records