Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:24:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
35 0x352c…940d sports 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$315 (+17%) realized +$317 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate70%23W / 10L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$84
other 15% +$214
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)+10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +22.1% +10.5% 70% 70% +6.4%
≤30d 33 +22.1% +10.5% 70% 70% +6.4%
≤90d 33 +22.1% +10.5% 70% 70% +6.4%
all 33 +22.1% +10.5% 70% 70% +6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.5% 70% +6.4%
10% -0.1% 70% -3.8%
15% -9.7% 70% -13.1%
20% -18.6% 58% -21.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$56 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized+$317
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses23 / 10
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage7d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 49¢ 48¢ $75 $73 −$2 (-2%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 62¢ 62¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $51 +$25 +50%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $51 +$30 +60%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $51 +$51 +101%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 +$63 +123%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 +$30 +59%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 +$58 +114%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 +$28 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $50 +$23 +46%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 +$30 +60%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 +$28 +55%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $51 +$44 +86%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $54 +$29 +55%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $51 +$45 +90%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Sweden to win the second half? Jun 15 $51 +$53 +105%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $51 +$33 +65%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $51 +$40 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $51 +$42 +83%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $51 +$38 +74%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$58 +114%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 13 $51 +$40 +79%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 12 $30 +$27 +90%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $50 +$21 +42%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $76 6m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $51 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 66¢ $51 17h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $114 18h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $51 18h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $81 18h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 100¢ $109 18h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $51 21h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 49¢ $51 21h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 46¢ $51 21h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $51 21h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 64¢ $51 34h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 68¢ $50 40h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 64¢ $51 41h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $51 41h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $51 43h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 67¢ $50 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 64¢ $101 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $43 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $10 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 58¢ $101 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $51 3d
Sweden to win the second half? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 40¢ $51 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $51 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $51 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $51 3d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) SELL Germany 99¢ $88 3d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 56¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.47 · official $123.47 (match) · 61 history records