Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:00:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x352d…cb9e crypto 319 markets active 9h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$21,486 (+3%) realized +$21,480 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate88%281W / 37L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$2,168per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$233est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,900
7 days+$10,561
14 days+$14,375
30 days+$17,143
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% +$4,242
sports 29% +$8,017
other 25% +$8,200
tech 1% +$411
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +4.1% -5.8% 100% 4% -5.2%
≤30d 99 +3.3% -6.5% 100% 4% -6.1%
≤90d 210 +2.3% -7.4% 97% 4% -6.6%
all 318 -0.6% -10.1% 88% 11% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 11% -6.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 8% -15.7%
15% -26.5% 7% -23.9%
20% -33.7% 5% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$2,909) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$38 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×16.03 per $1 lost it wins $16.03
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$21,480
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses281 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$233
Open positions1
Markets (closed)318 / 319
History coverage220d
Avg bet$2,168
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 318 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $39 $45 +$6 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 27 $18,161 +$1,742 +10%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 27 $14,710 +$593 +4%
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) Jun 26 $2,094 +$39 +2%
Norway vs. France: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $3,558 +$115 +3%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 26 $1,769 +$32 +2%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 26 $8,182 +$591 +7%
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? Jun 26 $825 +$95 +12%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 26 $6,867 +$243 +4%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $14,550 +$450 +3%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 25 $14,410 +$712 +5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $13,942 +$1,338 +10%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $8,376 +$612 +7%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 24 $4,845 +$155 +3%
Spread: Panama (-1.5) Jun 24 $8,396 +$252 +3%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $12,330 +$629 +5%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $11,709 +$604 +5%
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) Jun 23 $7,212 +$256 +4%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 23 $11,213 +$252 +2%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $8,854 +$233 +3%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 22 $2,689 +$86 +3%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 22 $4,970 +$30 +1%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 22 $10,380 +$433 +4%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Jun 22 $5,104 +$120 +2%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $9,834 +$362 +4%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 21 $106 +$1 +1%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $2,115 +$42 +2%
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) Jun 21 $7,505 +$185 +2%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $8,740 +$360 +4%
Spread: Paraguay (-3.5) Jun 20 $5,312 +$37 +1%
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) Jun 20 $1,922 +$78 +4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9,182 +$63 +1%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 19 $8,648 +$452 +5%
o1 FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 18 $726 +$83 +12%
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 18 $4,266 +$445 +10%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 18 $3,024 +$187 +6%
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) Jun 18 $3,357 +$83 +2%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,445 +$29 +2%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,149 +$42 +2%
Spread: Jordan (-2.5) Jun 17 $1,678 +$10 +1%
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) Jun 17 $6,015 +$156 +3%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,632 +$57 +4%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 17 $5,772 +$228 +4%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,910 +$194 +7%
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) Jun 17 $4,216 +$86 +2%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 16 $7,873 +$244 +3%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $7,592 +$284 +4%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7,407 +$182 +2%
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) Jun 15 $7,298 +$111 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6,846 +$437 +6%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3,825 +$118 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY Egypt 91¢ $18,161 8h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Spain 96¢ $5,829 11h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Spain 96¢ $9 11h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Spain 96¢ $7,679 11h
Norway vs. France: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $136 18h
Norway vs. France: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $68 18h
Norway vs. France: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $152 18h
Norway vs. France: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $126 18h
Norway vs. France: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $3,077 18h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY France 98¢ $1,742 18h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY France 98¢ $25 22h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY France 98¢ $3 22h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY France 93¢ $8,182 22h
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? SELL Yes 92¢ $920 23h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Spain 96¢ $11 23h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Spain 96¢ $11 23h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Spain 96¢ $11 23h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Spain 96¢ $11 23h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Spain 96¢ $11 23h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Spain 96¢ $11 23h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Spain 96¢ $11 23h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Spain 96¢ $11 23h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Spain 96¢ $11 23h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Spain 96¢ $11 23h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Spain 96¢ $11 23h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Spain 96¢ $11 23h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Spain 96¢ $11 23h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Spain 96¢ $11 23h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Spain 96¢ $11 23h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Spain 96¢ $11 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.89 · official $44.89 (match) · 1601 history records