Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:25:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x352f…8973 crypto 40 markets active 11h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$15 (-8%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate54%21W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day16.3pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$19
other 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -21.1% -28.6% 55% 18% -17.7%
≤30d 39 -12.9% -21.2% 54% 33% -19.6%
≤90d 39 -12.9% -21.2% 54% 33% -19.6%
all 39 -12.9% -21.2% 54% 33% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 33% -19.6%
10% -28.7% 31% -27.3%
15% -35.6% 28% -34.3%
20% -41.9% 21% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses21 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage7d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day16.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $16 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$3 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4PM ET Jun 10 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$8 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 10 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$7 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$3 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$3 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $16 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? BUY No 86¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.44 · official $15.44 (match) · 123 history records