Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:45:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3531…bbbe sports 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$26 (-5%) realized −$24 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%53W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$1
14 days−$9
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$28
other 28% −$5
crypto 2% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -1.7% -11.1% 54% 51% -10.0%
≤30d 104 -6.5% -15.4% 51% 49% -16.1%
≤90d 104 -6.5% -15.4% 51% 49% -16.1%
all 104 -6.5% -15.4% 51% 49% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 49% -16.1%
10% -23.5% 40% -24.2%
15% -30.9% 25% -31.5%
20% -37.7% 6% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$24
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses53 / 51
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)104 / 109
History coverage28d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 63¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 Over 65¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) Baltimore Orioles 74¢ 74¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Over 66¢ 42¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-37%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$4 -76%
Will IR Tanger win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 $0 -3%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 17 $4 −$2 -43%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 −$2 -53%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $4 −$1 -34%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -28%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 16 $6 −$3 -57%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 16 $6 +$2 +28%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 16 $6 +$3 +45%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 16 $6 −$5 -82%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 15 $6 −$1 -9%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$6 -67%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 −$2 -37%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $8 +$2 +22%
Will CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +12%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +46%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 14 $8 +$3 +32%
Will EC Juventude vs. AA Ponte Preta end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +30%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 14 $8 −$2 -24%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 13 $8 −$1 -12%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 13 $8 +$2 +29%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $8 +$4 +44%
Will CD Palestino win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$6 -74%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 13 $7 −$2 -34%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 13 $7 +$3 +42%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $7 +$3 +40%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 12 $8 −$2 -20%
Will OC Safi vs. Kawkab AC end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 +$3 +43%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +13%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 11 $6 +$1 +21%
1st 5 Innings Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 11 $6 +$4 +60%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $5 +$2 +36%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Bolivia vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +21%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 10 $5 $0 +7%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 10 $5 −$1 -27%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $5 +$1 +27%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 10 $5 −$2 -33%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $4 +$1 +35%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 10 $4 −$1 -15%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $4 −$1 -28%
Will Togo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $4 +$2 +38%
Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 08 $4 −$2 -46%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $4 +$1 +24%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 07 $4 +$2 +40%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 07 $4 −$1 -38%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 06 $4 $0 -7%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $4 +$1 +34%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $5 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 74¢ $4 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 16¢ $1 2h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 65¢ $5 4h
Will IR Tanger win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 74¢ $5 4h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 66¢ $5 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $5 7h
Will IR Tanger win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 75¢ $5 12h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 63¢ $5 13h
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) SELL Chicago Cubs 44¢ $2 18h
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 20h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 43¢ $3 20h
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 75¢ $4 20h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 63¢ $4 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 49¢ $3 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 32h
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 62¢ $4 36h
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 28¢ $3 41h
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) SELL St. Louis Cardinals 92¢ $7 42h
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) SELL Detroit Tigers 94¢ $9 42h
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) SELL Houston Astros 12¢ $1 42h
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) SELL Kansas City Royals 57¢ $5 43h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 44h
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) BUY Houston Astros 65¢ $6 45h
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 71¢ $6 47h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL No 50¢ $4 47h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $6 2d
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 64¢ $6 2d
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 61¢ $6 2d
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 63¢ $6 2d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 78¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.11 · official $17.82 (match) · 218 history records