Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:37:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
35 0x3534…9ff3 weather 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$35 (+0%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%99W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$358now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$6
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 88% +$31
crypto 8% +$2
finance 2% $0
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 31 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 95 +0.3% -9.3% 99% 0% -9.3%
all 100 +0.3% -9.3% 99% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×90.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8945.22 per $1 lost it wins $8945.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$358
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses99 / 1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)100 / 104
History coverage94d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $138 $138 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 65°F or below on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $93 $93 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $73 $73 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $109 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 20? Jun 20 $103 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $147 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 18? Jun 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 18? Jun 18 $198 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $353 +$3 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on June 15? Jun 15 $354 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 9°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $304 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 13? Jun 13 $51 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C or below on June 11? Jun 12 $145 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on June 10? Jun 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $193 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 9? Jun 10 $55 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 5°C on June 9? Jun 10 $105 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $248 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $353 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 6? Jun 06 $348 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C or higher on June 5? Jun 06 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or below on June 5? Jun 06 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $185 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $350 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 2? Jun 02 $351 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on May 31? Jun 01 $160 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 31? Jun 01 $191 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C or higher on May 30? May 30 $191 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on May 29? May 30 $350 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on May 28? May 28 $349 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 25? May 25 $349 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 25? May 24 $321 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on May 25? May 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 24? May 23 $348 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 22? May 21 $348 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 18? May 20 $348 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C or below on May 16? May 16 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C or below on May 16? May 15 $125 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on May 15? May 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 16°C on May 15? May 14 $144 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 4? May 04 $194 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on May 3? May 03 $153 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 1? May 01 $163 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on May 1? May 01 $145 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on May 1? May 01 $38 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 29? Apr 29 $346 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 28? Apr 29 $346 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C or below on April 28? Apr 27 $346 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 26? Apr 26 $346 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 26? Apr 26 $344 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or below on April 23? Apr 23 $174 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 22? Apr 22 $170 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 22? Apr 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $138 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $73 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $54 25h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 65°F or below on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $93 25h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $103 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C or below on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $109 2d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $198 3d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $14 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $86 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $61 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C or below on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $353 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $354 6d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $51 8d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 9°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $304 8d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C or below on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $145 11d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $15 11d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $55 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $193 12d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $248 12d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 5°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $105 12d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $353 13d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $348 14d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C or higher on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $57 16d
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or below on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $110 16d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or below on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $185 16d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $350 17d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $351 18d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $191 21d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C or higher on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $191 21d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $160 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $358.49 · official $358.49 (match) · 273 history records