Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:16:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3535…205b other 129 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$364 (+0%) realized +$364 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate19%24W / 104L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$909per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$543now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$10
14 days−$12
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$81
politics 32% −$44
sports 15% +$405
world 3% −$91
economics 2% −$2
crypto 1% +$3
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 96 -10.9% -19.4% 8% 3% -10.3%
all 128 -2.3% -11.6% 19% 11% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 11% -9.2%
10% -20.1% 10% -17.9%
15% -27.8% 9% -25.9%
20% -34.9% 5% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,085) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$10 · ×5.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$543
Realized+$364
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses24 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage127d
Avg bet$909
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $543 $543 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $432 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $869 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1,325 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $2,017 −$3 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $860 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $858 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $877 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $835 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $757 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $717 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $773 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,809 −$3 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $801 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 03 $288 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? Jun 03 $356 $0 +0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $2,480 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $2,746 −$3 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $314 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $2,163 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $333 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $2,156 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $1,482 −$2 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $607 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 23 $367 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 11 $969 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $2,022 −$3 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $1,006 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $1,811 −$2 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $1,077 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $1,074 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 05 $1,041 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 02 $962 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $1,631 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 02 $611 +$2 +0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $385 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 28 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $2,756 −$3 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $1,462 −$1 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $1,085 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $847 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $3,597 −$4 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $1,772 −$2 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $787 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $844 −$2 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $1,039 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $844 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $847 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $846 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $850 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $1,494 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $431 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $432 2h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $543 2d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $868 4d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $869 4d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $641 4d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $641 5d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $946 5d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $947 5d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $859 5d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $860 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $857 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $858 6d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $875 6d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $877 6d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $834 12d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $835 12d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $756 12d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $757 12d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $717 14d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $717 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $772 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $773 15d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $755 15d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $757 15d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $800 15d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $801 15d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $366 18d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $367 18d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $361 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $542.52 · official $542.52 (match) · 440 history records