Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:06:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3535…75b2 other 681 markets active 2h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 87d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,309 (-2%) realized −$1,516 · open +$207
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate13%91W / 587L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day35.7pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$1,457now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$113
7 days−$102
14 days−$743
30 days−$577
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$341
politics 22% −$323
world 10% −$131
sports 6% −$134
finance 6% −$79
culture 4% −$78
crypto 3% +$74
weather 2% −$129
tech 2% −$118
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-33.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -9.7% -18.3% 52% 13% -11.0%
≤30d 186 -28.4% -35.2% 16% 5% -12.6%
≤90d 678 -26.7% -33.6% 13% 6% -12.1%
all 678 -26.7% -33.6% 13% 6% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.6% 6% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -40.0% 4% -20.5%
15% -45.8% 3% -28.2%
20% -51.1% 1% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -28% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$6 · ×3.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$1,457
Realized−$1,516
Unrealized+$207
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses91 / 587
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions2
Markets (closed)678 / 681
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$79
Trades / day35.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 678 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 19¢ $750 $960 +$210 (+28%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $501 +$20 +4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $201 +$14 +7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $502 +$58 +12%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 25 $501 +$20 +4%
Targu Mures: Cezar Cretu vs Niels McDonald Jun 25 $1 $0 -4%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $10 $0 -3%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $501 +$20 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Flavio Cobolli be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 23 $51 −$33 -65%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $304 −$32 -10%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $360 −$167 -46%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $150 +$54 +36%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $360 −$40 -11%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $350 −$6 -2%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $360 +$99 +28%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $501 +$4 +1%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $501 +$20 +4%
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by September 30? Jun 23 $37 −$1 -2%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $501 +$29 +6%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $201 +$15 +7%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $250 −$177 -71%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $4 −$1 -20%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $301 +$2 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 20? Jun 20 $35 $0 -1%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu Jun 20 $30 −$1 -4%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 22? Jun 19 $29 −$2 -6%
Will Eduardo Camavinga join Bayern Munich? Jun 19 $0 $0 -25%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 18? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Karianne Lisonbee be the Republican nominee for UT-02? Jun 17 $4 $0 -6%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 17 $0 $0 -37%
Cap FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 17 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? Jun 17 $44 −$4 -9%
Will Mike Collins win the Georgia Republican Senate Primary runoff ele Jun 17 $2 $0 -6%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -13%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 17? Jun 16 $0 $0 -5%
Will Team Spirit make a roster change before July? Jun 16 $47 −$7 -15%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
o1 FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 16 $22 $0 -1%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $37 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -5%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Jun 16 $45 $0 -1%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 16 $44 −$2 -3%
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 16 $22 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $502 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 99¢ $521 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 96¢ $215 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 89¢ $201 23h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 95¢ $501 37h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $560 42h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Germany 98¢ $521 44h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Germany 94¢ $501 46h
Targu Mures: Cezar Cretu vs Niels McDonald SELL Cezar Cretu 90¢ $1 2d
Targu Mures: Cezar Cretu vs Niels McDonald BUY Cezar Cretu 93¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $256 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $410 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $502 2d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 96¢ $501 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 3d
Will Flavio Cobolli be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes $18 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $124 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $192 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $204 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $320 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $344 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $459 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $586 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 95¢ $390 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 95¢ $115 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 100¢ $520 3d
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by September 30? SELL Yes 91¢ $36 4d
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by September 30? BUY Yes 93¢ $37 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,457.08 · official $1,457.08 (match) · 3500 history records