Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:42:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x353b…e535 weather 396 markets active 0h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$259 (-4%) realized −$270 · open +$11
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate48%189W / 203L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$104
7 days+$60
14 days+$48
30 days−$203
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 41% −$113
other 29% −$60
sports 27% −$180
finance 2% +$12
world 1% +$75
crypto 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -14.9% -23.0% 50% 50% -1.4%
≤30d 61 -7.4% -16.2% 54% 49% -14.8%
≤90d 390 -4.5% -13.6% 48% 40% -14.0%
all 392 -4.5% -13.6% 48% 40% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 40% -13.8%
10% -21.9% 35% -22.0%
15% -29.4% 32% -29.6%
20% -36.3% 27% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$12 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized−$270
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses189 / 203
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions4
Markets (closed)392 / 396
History coverage101d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 392 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? No 89¢ 98¢ $87 $96 +$9 (+10%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? No 80¢ 86¢ $36 $39 +$3 (+8%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 164 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $32 +$15 +48%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $197 +$68 +35%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $25 +$7 +29%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $166 +$28 +17%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $43 +$97 +227%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $11 +$10 +86%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $45 −$45 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $21 +$10 +49%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$17 -83%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $61 +$75 +122%
O/U 3.5 Rounds Jun 15 $61 +$44 +72%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +245%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $27 −$27 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $296 +$169 +57%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $60 −$59 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $390 +$5 +1%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $208 −$208 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $44 +$21 +47%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 09 $65 −$65 -99%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 08 $111 −$110 -99%
Will Defensor Sporting win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $16 +$14 +87%
Will Defensor Sporting vs. CA Boston River end in a draw? Jun 07 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 07 $4 +$1 +18%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $9 +$1 +11%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $47 +$10 +21%
Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5) Jun 06 $92 +$55 +60%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $31 +$7 +23%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $20 −$6 -28%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $13 +$8 +60%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Poland vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 03 $10 +$23 +238%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $16 −$15 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $6 +$7 +119%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $9 −$9 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $8 +$5 +67%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $47 +$27 +57%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $95 +$214 +226%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Learner Tien May 30 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3 −$3 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Solana Sierra vs Sorana Cirstea May 29 $227 +$35 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 14m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 17m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 17m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 89¢ $88 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $36 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 72¢ $3 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 67¢ $25 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 67¢ $3 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $133 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $150 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $46 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 31¢ $15 31h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $25 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 85¢ $166 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $38 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $11 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $36 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $7 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $21 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $1 5d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $28 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $44 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $21 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No $3 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 18¢ $20 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 45¢ $4 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.91 · official $143.91 (match) · 830 history records