Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:55:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x353c…01d9 crypto 376 markets active 2h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12,323 (-9%) realized −$12,323 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate51%192W / 184L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$347per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$174est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$308
7 days−$1,896
14 days−$1,946
30 days−$8,491
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$6,989
crypto 45% −$2,940
sports 8% −$2,498
world 1% −$518
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -38.7% -44.5% 38% 38% -54.6%
≤30d 18 -36.9% -42.9% 44% 44% -38.4%
≤90d 376 -10.4% -18.9% 51% 28% -18.1%
all 376 -10.4% -18.9% 51% 28% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 28% -18.1%
10% -26.7% 25% -25.9%
15% -33.8% 22% -33.1%
20% -40.3% 17% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$130 vs −$206 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12,323
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses192 / 184
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$174
Open positions0
Markets (closed)376 / 376
History coverage62d
Avg bet$347
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 376 Trades
no open positions (113 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $158 +$101 +64%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $209 −$206 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $167 +$43 +26%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $249 −$246 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $677 −$666 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $338 +$341 +101%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,116 −$759 -68%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $509 −$505 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 28 $7,589 −$7,435 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $6,357 +$1,263 +20%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $5,559 +$799 +14%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $40 +$9 +23%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $1,139 −$1,111 -98%
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $708 +$403 +57%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 20 $406 −$400 -98%
Exact Score: SC Freiburg 1 - 1 Aston Villa FC? May 20 $123 −$120 -97%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $151 +$46 +31%
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $282 +$113 +40%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $249 −$246 -99%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: Both Teams to Score May 18 $566 +$308 +54%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 2 - 0 Burnley FC? May 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-19? May 18 $152 −$150 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $356 +$404 +114%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $879 +$268 +30%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? May 17 $92 +$254 +276%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $202 +$92 +46%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $151 +$34 +23%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $136 −$134 -98%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $154 −$18 -12%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1,006 +$260 +26%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score May 16 $1,519 −$1,500 -99%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $283 −$280 -99%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $2,706 +$225 +8%
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $681 +$96 +14%
Will Al Fateh Saudi Club win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $1,008 +$342 +34%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $304 +$222 +73%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $102 +$19 +19%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-21? May 13 $70 +$7 +10%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $304 +$213 +70%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Exact Score: Villarreal CF 3 - 1 Sevilla FC? May 13 $36 −$35 -98%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $161 −$160 -99%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $51 +$31 +62%
Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: Both Teams to Score May 12 $1,515 +$675 +44%
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $711 +$348 +49%
Will CD Santa Clara win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $359 −$351 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL No 87¢ $259 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $158 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 42¢ $209 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $167 25h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $249 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $677 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $338 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 20¢ $337 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,116 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 73¢ $509 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $51 7d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $7,589 21d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $6,357 26d
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-05-22? SELL No 100¢ $6,359 27d
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-05-22? BUY No 87¢ $5,559 27d
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? BUY Yes 81¢ $40 28d
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? BUY No 16¢ $1,139 28d
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $708 29d
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $406 29d
Exact Score: SC Freiburg 1 - 1 Aston Villa FC? BUY Yes 12¢ $123 29d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY No 76¢ $151 30d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $249 30d
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $874 30d
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 2 - 0 Burnley FC? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 31d
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY No 71¢ $282 31d
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 65¢ $152 31d
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $566 31d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 32d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $760 32d
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-17? SELL No 100¢ $1,147 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 773 history records