Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:37:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

35
0x3547…31fd
crypto · 1147 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,284 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,283 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,283
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses582 / 566
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1148 / 1147
History coverage70d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day42.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1148 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$143
14 days−$481
30 days−$481
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the April Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$13 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$12 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$6 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $19 +$14 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $12 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$26 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$9 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$24 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $18 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$8 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$7 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$7 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$9 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $36 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $13 +$8 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$12 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $57 +$22 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$1,281
world 0% −$1
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $13 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $19 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $6 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $7 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $8 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $12 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $30 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $8 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $13 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $20 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $15 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $8 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 545 -0.7% -10.1% 52% 52% -11.3%
≤30d 820 -3.0% -12.3% 51% 50% -13.5%
≤90d 1148 -3.3% -12.5% 51% 50% -16.4%
all 1148 -3.3% -12.5% 51% 50% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover42.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 50% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 49% -24.4%
15% -28.5% 46% -31.7%
20% -35.5% 42% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 3500 history records