Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:15:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
35 0x354c…3f2d crypto 1273 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 89d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$96 (+0%) realized +$96 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate51%648W / 625L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day33.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$29
14 days−$32
30 days−$1,032
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$642
world 0% −$2
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -21.8% -29.3% 50% 40% -16.5%
≤30d 416 -22.1% -29.5% 47% 34% -29.0%
≤90d 1273 -17.0% -24.9% 51% 36% -12.6%
all 1273 -17.0% -24.9% 51% 36% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.9% 36% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -32.1% 23% -21.0%
15% -38.6% 16% -28.6%
20% -44.7% 13% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$96
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses648 / 625
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1273 / 1273
History coverage90d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day33.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1273 Trades
no open positions (376 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 26 $31 +$28 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 26 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 26 $4 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 26 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 26 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 25 $12 −$8 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 25 $3 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $12 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 20 $12 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? Jun 19 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12PM ET Jun 19 $32 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $13 −$11 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$12 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $12 +$7 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3492 history records