Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:38:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

35
0x354c…6e98
other · 13 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$51
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)2 / 13
History coverage5d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit8%
Chart Positions 11 History 2 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 70¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 92¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 78¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 78¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1 $0 -3%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 08 $1 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 99% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 78¢ $1 11m
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 1h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 2h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 6h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 7h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 16h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 17h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 18h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 20h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 20h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 23h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 24h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 25h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 69¢ $1 31h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 32h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 78¢ $1 36h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $1 36h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 68¢ $1 36h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 65¢ $1 38h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 68¢ $1 38h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 39h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 42h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 43h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 45h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 47h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 2d
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 88¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 2d
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 92¢ $1 2d
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 93¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -6.4% -15.3% 0% 0% -15.3%
≤30d 2 -6.4% -15.3% 0% 0% -15.3%
≤90d 2 -6.4% -15.3% 0% 0% -15.3%
all 2 -6.4% -15.3% 0% 0% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 0% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 0% -23.4%
15% -30.8% 0% -30.8%
20% -37.6% 0% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.95 · official $50.95 (match) · 103 history records