Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:08:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
35 0x354f…7327 politics 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%2W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$1
other 24% $0
sports 12% $0
culture 6% $0
crypto 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 10 -0.0% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
all 16 -0.0% -9.5% 12% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses2 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage109d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $110 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 30 $110 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $110 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $110 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $221 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $110 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $111 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $111 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 08 $111 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $111 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 18 $111 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $111 $0 -0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 11 $111 $0 +0%
Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 10 $111 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 07 $111 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 02 $111 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $110 2h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $110 16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $110 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $110 20d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $110 22d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $110 23d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $110 31d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $110 31d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $110 36d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $110 36d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $110 42d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $110 42d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $111 61d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $111 62d
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $111 66d
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $111 67d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $111 70d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $111 71d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $111 72d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $111 72d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $111 77d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $111 77d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $111 92d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $22 93d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $89 93d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $111 96d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $111 96d
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $111 99d
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $111 100d
Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 100¢ $111 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records