Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:47:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3551…a581 crypto 486 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 5d only
✗ bot/MM pace (591 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$78 (+1%) realized +$103 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate51%248W / 238L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day591.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$316
sports 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (591 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 486 +2.0% -7.7% 51% 44% -11.2%
≤30d 486 +2.0% -7.7% 51% 44% -11.2%
≤90d 486 +2.0% -7.7% 51% 44% -11.2%
all 486 +2.0% -7.7% 51% 44% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover591.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.7% 44% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 36% -19.7%
15% -24.6% 28% -27.5%
20% -32.0% 22% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$15 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$103
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses248 / 238
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)486 / 486
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$31
Trades / day591.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 486 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Up 61¢ 30¢ $51 $26 −$25 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $53 +$45 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 26 $53 +$58 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 26 $53 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 26 $104 −$8 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 26 $53 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 26 $53 +$45 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 26 $22 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $105 +$150 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 26 $53 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 26 $53 +$58 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 26 $45 +$20 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $52 +$27 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 26 $53 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 26 $52 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 26 $104 −$15 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $53 −$51 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 26 $84 +$25 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $84 −$64 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 26 $76 +$37 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $100 +$33 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 26 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 26 $34 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $89 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 26 $74 −$71 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 26 $76 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 26 $77 +$76 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 26 $98 +$58 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 26 $34 −$14 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 26 $67 −$40 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $87 +$24 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 26 $89 −$62 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 26 $76 +$71 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $97 −$79 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 26 $36 −$28 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $32 +$31 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 26 $85 −$82 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 26 $85 +$71 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 26 $64 −$61 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 26 $103 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 26 $84 +$55 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 26 $88 −$72 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 26 $44 −$24 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 26 $101 +$36 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 26 $52 −$13 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $68 −$6 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 26 $97 −$53 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 26 $104 −$16 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 26 $49 −$29 -59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $52 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $53 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $53 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $53 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $53 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $51 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $53 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $22 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $53 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $53 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $53 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $53 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $11 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.50 · official $44.73 · 3500 history records