Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:50:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
35 0x3551…e8ce other 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$94 (+4%) realized +$99 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate80%12W / 3L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$162
sports 4% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +18.7% +7.4% 80% 60% -2.4%
≤30d 15 +18.7% +7.4% 80% 60% -2.4%
≤90d 15 +18.7% +7.4% 80% 60% -2.4%
all 15 +18.7% +7.4% 80% 60% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.4% 60% -2.4%
10% -2.9% 60% -11.7%
15% -12.3% 60% -20.2%
20% -20.9% 40% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +50% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$10 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.66 per $1 lost it wins $6.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized+$99
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses12 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage3d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 80¢ 76¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 42¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,002 +$62 +6%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 +$8 +83%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$11 +55%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +50%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$5 +52%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,002 +$73 +7%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 +$7 +73%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $11 +$1 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +50%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $13 +$7 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $20 18m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 39m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,002 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 4h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $10 5h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $10 20h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 20h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $10 38h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $10 38h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 40h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 43h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 43h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 93¢ $1,002 43h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $11 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 69¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.39 · official $115.39 (match) · 31 history records