Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:28:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

35
0x3551…ab11
sports · 27 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
−$8 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$8 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$12
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses11 / 15
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage203d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 1 History 26 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$12
14 days+$11
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Canadiens 42¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Red Wings vs. Blue Jackets Red Wings 48¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 64¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Pistons 66¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Islanders vs. Lightning Lightning 63¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 +$2 +23%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $22 +$1 +6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 −$1 -10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$5 +44%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$8 -80%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $10 +$2 +17%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $16 −$5 -31%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -6%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $20 +$4 +21%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $5 +$5 +99%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $5 +$2 +40%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 27 $4 −$4 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $4 +$1 +12%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $7 −$2 -37%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 17 $10 +$2 +19%
Over $200M committed to the Gensyn public sale? Mar 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Over $100M committed to the Gensyn public sale? Mar 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Texans vs. Chiefs Dec 07 $1 $0 -3%
Lakers vs. 76ers Dec 07 $2 $0 +2%
Islanders vs. Lightning Dec 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Red Wings vs. Blue Jackets Dec 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 22 $5 −$1 -19%
Over $225M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 22 $1 $0 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 80% +$2
other 20% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $12 19m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $12 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 81¢ $10 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $24 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 93¢ $22 2h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 54¢ $9 3h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $10 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 71¢ $15 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 21h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $16 25h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 25h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes $2 25h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 26h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 82¢ $12 27h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $10 30h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 37¢ $11 44h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $16 45h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 37¢ $10 45h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 47h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 66¢ $24 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 68¢ $10 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 44¢ $10 4d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main SELL Gabriel Bonfim 99¢ $10 6d
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai SELL Brendan Allen 99¢ $7 6d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Gabriel Bonfim 49¢ $5 6d
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai BUY Brendan Allen 70¢ $5 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $1 9d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 42¢ $4 16d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers SELL Knicks 51¢ $5 20d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 44¢ $4 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-29.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +14.8% +3.9% 67% 58% -1.7%
≤30d 18 -7.1% -16.0% 56% 50% -8.4%
≤90d 18 -7.1% -16.0% 56% 50% -8.4%
all 26 -22.4% -29.8% 42% 35% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.8% 35% -13.2%
10% -36.5% 19% -21.5%
15% -42.6% 15% -29.1%
20% -48.3% 8% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.33 · official $12.33 (match) · 49 history records