Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:00:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3555…c4d1 crypto 1569 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$439 (-1%) realized −$439 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%912W / 778L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day44.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 57d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 334 -58.1% -62.1% 25% 25% -72.6%
≤30d 809 -17.3% -25.2% 49% 49% -55.2%
≤90d 1690 -8.8% -17.4% 54% 54% -21.4%
all 1690 -8.8% -17.4% 54% 54% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.4% 54% -21.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.3% 54% -28.9%
15% -32.6% 54% -35.8%
20% -39.2% 42% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$54 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$439
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses912 / 778
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1690 / 1569
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$49
Trades / day44.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1690 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $51 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $23 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $51 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $51 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $52 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $51 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $51 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $51 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $8 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $44 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $51 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $51 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $52 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $52 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records