Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:19:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
35 0x3556…3fb4 sports 18 markets active 13h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$122 (+13%) realized +$123 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%9W / 8L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$124
14 days+$139
30 days+$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -20.5% -28.1% 50% 50% -63.7%
≤30d 17 +8.7% -1.7% 53% 53% +2.8%
≤90d 17 +8.7% -1.7% 53% 53% +2.8%
all 17 +8.7% -1.7% 53% 53% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.7% 53% +2.8%
10% -11.1% 47% -7.1%
15% -19.7% 41% -16.0%
20% -27.6% 29% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$36 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$123
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses9 / 8
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage14d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season T1 Academy 45¢ 44¢ $45 $43 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: NAVI Junior vs WeClear (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Pl Jun 19 $19 +$6 +31%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Play Jun 18 $31 +$27 +87%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $83 −$71 -86%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $87 −$86 -99%
Map Handicap: GZ (-1.5) vs MARKandLARRY (+1.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 -35%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $98 +$58 +60%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $62 +$90 +146%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $101 +$50 +50%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $49 −$11 -22%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Minkens finest - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $11 −$6 -58%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Gaming By Legends - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $16 −$16 -97%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B Jun 12 $53 +$105 +197%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $79 −$77 -98%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win Jun 11 $26 +$34 +132%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Paul Jubb Jun 10 $37 +$15 +40%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 08 $101 +$20 +20%
Garcia vs. Grabher: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 08 $22 −$22 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso SELL T1 Academy 44¢ $1 12h
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso SELL T1 Academy 44¢ $7 12h
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso SELL T1 Academy 44¢ $17 12h
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso BUY T1 Academy 45¢ $72 12h
Counter-Strike: NAVI Junior vs WeClear (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Pl BUY NAVI Junior 76¢ $19 4d
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Play BUY summer bear 54¢ $21 4d
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Play BUY summer bear 50¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 31¢ $36 5d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 32¢ $19 5d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 31¢ $11 5d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 30¢ $6 5d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 30¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 32¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 31¢ $8 5d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 55¢ $87 6d
Map Handicap: GZ (-1.5) vs MARKandLARRY (+1.5) SELL MARKandLARRY 19¢ $1 7d
Map Handicap: GZ (-1.5) vs MARKandLARRY (+1.5) BUY MARKandLARRY 28¢ $1 7d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner BUY Bebop 40¢ $62 9d
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 4 Winner BUY Solary 62¢ $98 9d
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Minkens finest - Map 1 Winner SELL Minkens finest $4 9d
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Minkens finest - Map 1 Winner BUY Minkens finest $11 9d
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Gaming By Legends - Map 1 Winner BUY Gaming By Legends 10¢ $16 9d
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B BUY MASQ 33¢ $53 10d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St BUY SPARTA 50¢ $79 10d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 66¢ $72 10d
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win SELL Top Esports Challenger 100¢ $60 11d
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win BUY Top Esports Challenger 43¢ $24 11d
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win BUY Top Esports Challenger 43¢ $2 11d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 68¢ $25 12d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 67¢ $12 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.30 · official $43.30 (match) · 48 history records