Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:10:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3556…2277 crypto 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (164 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$40 (+0%) realized +$155 · open −$115
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate53%20W / 18L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$445per market
Trades / day164.0pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,885now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$1,871
other 11% −$115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (164 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -10.0% -18.6% 53% 45% +2.0%
≤30d 38 -10.0% -18.6% 53% 45% +2.0%
≤90d 38 -10.0% -18.6% 53% 45% +2.0%
all 38 -10.0% -18.6% 53% 45% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover164.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.6% 45% +2.0%
10% ← realistic here -26.4% 39% -7.7%
15% -33.5% 21% -16.6%
20% -40.0% 16% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$608) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -21% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$227 vs −$149 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,885
Realized+$155
Unrealized−$115
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses20 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage1d
Avg bet$445
Trades / day164.0
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? Yes 92¢ 87¢ $1,000 $944 −$56 (-6%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? No 83¢ 78¢ $1,000 $941 −$59 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 27 $516 +$433 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 27 $610 +$189 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 27 $888 +$856 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 27 $407 +$120 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 27 $407 +$129 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 27 $362 −$170 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 27 $807 +$127 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 27 $523 −$523 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 27 $513 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 27 $712 +$248 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 27 $410 −$400 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 27 $312 −$268 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 27 $820 +$442 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 27 $712 +$186 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 27 $208 −$204 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 27 $233 −$143 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 27 $411 +$267 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 27 $715 +$225 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 27 $814 +$321 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 27 $302 +$30 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 27 $608 −$12 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 27 $302 +$23 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 27 $572 +$404 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 27 $405 −$74 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 27 $257 −$257 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 27 $203 +$61 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 27 $303 +$47 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 27 $812 −$187 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 27 $409 −$75 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 27 $309 +$247 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 27 $429 +$195 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 27 $130 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 27 $130 −$127 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 27 $52 −$8 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 27 $36 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 27 $130 −$95 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $949 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $207 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $207 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $202 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $203 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $205 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $166 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $105 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $205 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $206 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $203 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $204 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $203 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $203 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $53 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $192 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $206 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $204 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $209 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $96 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,884.80 · official $1,903.27 (match) · 205 history records