Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:58:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
35 0x355a…5a46 crypto 318 markets active 0h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate76%242W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +3.7% -6.2% 79% 8% -9.0%
≤30d 61 +3.7% -6.2% 79% 8% -9.0%
≤90d 61 +3.7% -6.2% 79% 8% -9.0%
all 318 -2.9% -12.2% 76% 50% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 50% -7.7%
10% -20.6% 4% -16.5%
15% -28.2% 2% -24.6%
20% -35.3% 1% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses242 / 76
Open positions0
Markets (closed)318 / 318
History coverage123d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 318 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$6 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$6 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 21 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 21 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 21 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 21 $7 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 21 $7 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$3 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$9 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $28 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $29 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $23 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $22 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 796 history records