Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:14:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
35 0x355d…0116 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$72 (+2%) realized +$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$327per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$28
sports 42% +$92
world 8% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 7 +2.4% -7.4% 57% 0% -7.0%
≤90d 10 -1.1% -10.5% 50% 0% -7.7%
all 10 -1.1% -10.5% 50% 0% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -7.7%
10% -19.1% 0% -16.6%
15% -26.9% 0% -24.6%
20% -34.1% 0% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$6 · ×3.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.14 per $1 lost it wins $3.14
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage83d
Avg bet$327
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Maduro guilty of all counts? Jun 19 $251 −$3 -1%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 18 $250 +$1 +0%
Spread: Albania (-2.5) Jun 04 $447 +$28 +6%
Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? Jun 03 $452 −$6 -1%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 03 $465 +$40 +9%
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? Jun 02 $467 −$5 -1%
Spread: Rosenborg BK (-2.5) May 26 $476 +$24 +5%
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Apr 19 $351 −$8 -2%
Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the May Meeting? Mar 29 $29 −$8 -29%
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? Mar 28 $85 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Maduro guilty of all counts? SELL No 92¢ $248 49m
Maduro guilty of all counts? BUY No 93¢ $251 1h
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $251 22h
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $250 24h
Spread: Albania (-2.5) BUY Israel 94¢ $447 15d
Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $446 15d
Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $452 15d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Wales 92¢ $465 16d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? SELL No 91¢ $462 17d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? BUY No 92¢ $191 17d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? BUY No 92¢ $276 17d
Spread: Rosenborg BK (-2.5) BUY KFUM-Kameratene Oslo 95¢ $476 24d
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $343 61d
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $351 62d
Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the May Meeting? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 81d
Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the May Meeting? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 81d
Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the May Meeting? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 82d
Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the May Meeting? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 82d
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? SELL Yes 33¢ $45 82d
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? SELL Yes 33¢ $33 82d
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? SELL Yes 33¢ $11 82d
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? BUY Yes 32¢ $43 82d
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? BUY Yes 32¢ $42 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records