Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:48:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
35 0x355f…1847 sports 125 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$462 (+12%) realized +$470 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate40%49W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$324
7 days+$372
14 days+$305
30 days+$314
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$466
other 19% −$269
world 3% +$34
crypto 1% −$31
politics 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
economics 0% −$4
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +5.8% -4.3% 50% 45% +4.5%
≤30d 28 -0.9% -10.4% 46% 43% +3.6%
≤90d 122 -18.1% -25.9% 40% 35% -1.3%
all 122 -18.1% -25.9% 40% 35% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.9% 35% -1.3%
10% -33.0% 30% -10.8%
15% -39.5% 23% -19.4%
20% -45.4% 17% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$8 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized+$470
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses49 / 73
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions3
Markets (closed)122 / 125
History coverage61d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $31 $30 −$1 (-3%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 24¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $51 +$46 +91%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$11 +22%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $204 −$3 -1%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $213 +$100 +47%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $203 +$185 +91%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$16 -15%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$77 -76%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $101 +$35 +34%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $31 −$7 -23%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $91 −$79 -86%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $184 +$207 +113%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $141 +$39 +28%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $151 −$108 -72%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +38%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$2 -56%
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -71%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $168 +$56 +33%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $51 +$3 +5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $539 −$8 -2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $339 −$68 -20%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1 $0 -1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $297 −$18 -6%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $137 +$19 +14%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $5 −$1 -15%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? May 31 $1 −$1 -51%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $30 +$10 +33%
AI data center moratorium passed before 2027? May 31 $1 $0 +38%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 07 $5 $0 +4%
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? (April 27 - May 3 May 03 $1 $0 +20%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 03 $1 $0 +32%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? May 03 $1 +$1 +79%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on May 1, 2026? May 03 $1 +$2 +157%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? May 03 $3 +$1 +27%
Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April? May 03 $1 +$4 +424%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 29 $5 −$4 -73%
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April? Apr 29 $2 $0 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? Apr 29 $4 +$3 +75%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? Apr 29 $5 +$6 +114%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -59%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 28 $7 −$1 -17%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -96%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 27 $3 +$2 +47%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 27 $5 +$2 +38%
Will White House post 60-79 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Will White House post 40-59 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 26 $1 −$1 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $5 +$4 +96%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 26 $5 +$2 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 12h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 73¢ $97 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 13h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $61 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 15h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $108 15h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 15h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 84¢ $260 16h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 16h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 42¢ $54 16h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $61 16h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 19h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $93 20h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 20h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $388 38h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 39h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 36¢ $86 39h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 39h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 39h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 39h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $17 39h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 39h
Egypt leading at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $136 39h
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 40h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 24¢ $23 40h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 40h
Belgium leading at halftime? SELL Yes $13 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.79 · official $152.79 (match) · 312 history records