Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:51:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3561…f1b7 other 86 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (2422 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$1,264 (+4%) realized −$2,787 · open +$4,051
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +245% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +166% what you keep after slip
Net edge+166%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%96W / 134L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$353per market
Trades / day2422.0pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit13%portable
Net worth$24,252now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$4,017
sports 4% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2422 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+212.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 230 +245.2% +212.3% 42% 38% +15.9%
≤30d 230 +245.2% +212.3% 42% 38% +15.9%
≤90d 230 +245.2% +212.3% 42% 38% +15.9%
all 230 +245.2% +212.3% 42% 38% +15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2422.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +212.3% 38% +15.9%
10% ← realistic here +182.4% 37% +4.8%
15% +155.1% 36% -5.3%
20% +130.1% 35% -14.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +245% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -91% → late +581% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
28.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$33 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$24,252
Realized−$2,787
Unrealized+$4,051
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses96 / 134
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions179
Markets (closed)230 / 86
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$353
Trades / day2422.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 179 History 230 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Senegal? No 99¢ 99¢ $2,235 $2,234 −$1 (-0%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 6¢ 24¢ $267 $1,114 +$846 (+317%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Over 32¢ 32¢ $1,102 $1,101 −$1 (-0%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Yes 6¢ 16¢ $373 $984 +$610 (+164%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 56¢ $777 $836 +$59 (+8%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Yes 6¢ 14¢ $362 $830 +$469 (+130%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Yes 6¢ 12¢ $421 $814 +$393 (+93%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Yes 6¢ 12¢ $320 $680 +$360 (+113%)
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 0 Norway? No 100¢ 100¢ $610 $610 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Yes 6¢ 12¢ $286 $608 +$322 (+113%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Over 82¢ 81¢ $601 $598 −$4 (-1%)
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Yes 6¢ 16¢ $224 $589 +$365 (+164%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Over 37¢ 36¢ $595 $586 −$9 (-2%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Yes 6¢ 16¢ $216 $569 +$353 (+164%)
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Yes 6¢ 9¢ $362 $554 +$192 (+53%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $295 $527 +$232 (+79%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Over 31¢ 30¢ $521 $512 −$9 (-2%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Over 27¢ 26¢ $505 $496 −$9 (-2%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 48¢ $481 $481 +$1 (+0%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Yes 6¢ 12¢ $218 $426 +$208 (+96%)
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 3 Jordan? No 99¢ 99¢ $392 $392 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $216 $386 +$170 (+79%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? No 18¢ 20¢ $332 $352 +$19 (+6%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $240 $346 +$107 (+45%)
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $267 $340 +$73 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 230 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $9 +$110 +1190%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 16 $1 +$25 +4401%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 16 $9 −$10 -102%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 16 $22 +$46 +210%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $0 +$7 +254423%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-2.5) Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 3 Ecuador? Jun 16 $50 −$16 -32%
Curaçao to win the second half? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 16 $33 +$130 +397%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 16 $16 +$80 +508%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $31 +$143 +462%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 16 $46 −$44 -94%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 16 $46 −$43 -94%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1 +$3 +265%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 16 $31 +$143 +461%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$3 -79%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 16 $46 +$20 +44%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $218 −$218 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 16 $29 +$156 +533%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 16 $5 +$115 +2332%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 16 $95 −$78 -82%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 16 $13 +$62 +490%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 16 $25 +$87 +342%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 16 $6 −$1 -25%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 16 $55 −$54 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 16 $15 +$63 +424%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 16 $5 +$35 +703%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 16 $29 +$157 +532%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 16 $21 +$2 +10%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 3 Ecuador? Jun 16 $9 +$195 +2222%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 16 $46 −$43 -94%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 16 $55 −$55 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $0 +$7 +254423%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $4 +$14 +364%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 16 $28 −$24 -84%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 16 $97 −$97 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY No 92¢ $46 0m
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Senegal? BUY No 99¢ $50 0m
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY No 95¢ $48 0m
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? BUY No 99¢ $50 0m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $16 0m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 86¢ $43 0m
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY No 99¢ $49 0m
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY No 96¢ $48 0m
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 BUY Under 12¢ $6 1m
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY No 96¢ $48 1m
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? BUY No 98¢ $49 1m
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 94¢ $47 1m
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Senegal? BUY No 100¢ $50 1m
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 0 Norway? BUY No 100¢ $8 3m
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $1 3m
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 0 Norway? BUY No 99¢ $8 3m
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? BUY No 97¢ $8 3m
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? BUY No 96¢ $8 3m
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 0 Norway? BUY No 99¢ $8 8m
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? BUY No 97¢ $8 8m
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? BUY No 96¢ $8 8m
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $1 8m
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 0 Norway? BUY No 100¢ $8 8m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $6 13m
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY No 98¢ $18 13m
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY No 96¢ $18 13m
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY No 92¢ $17 13m
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Senegal? BUY No 99¢ $19 13m
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? BUY No 99¢ $19 13m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 86¢ $16 13m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24,252.39 · official $23,958.96 · 3500 history records