Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:16:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3563…4b0c world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate42%16W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% +$5
other 13% $0
sports 7% $0
politics 5% +$1
crypto 3% $0
culture 3% −$4
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.8% -8.8% 50% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 14 +1.0% -8.6% 43% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 14 +1.0% -8.6% 43% 0% -8.6%
all 38 -0.2% -9.7% 42% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.2% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses16 / 22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage471d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $40 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $14 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $44 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $78 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $39 +$4 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $36 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $36 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $39 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $35 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $21 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 17 $27 −$4 -15%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? May 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 23 $14 $0 +1%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 21 $13 +$1 +9%
Will Ukraine qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 13 $14 −$1 -5%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? May 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Pacers vs. Nuggets be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Lakas win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2 May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during the May meeting? May 09 $12 $0 +1%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 07 $2 $0 -8%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $15 $0 -1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 31 $7 $0 +0%
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce engaged before April? Mar 29 $15 $0 -0%
Ethereum above $2,000 on March 28? Mar 29 $15 $0 +2%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $15 $0 -1%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 11 $5 $0 -4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 10 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $40 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $40 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $34 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $6 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $40 11h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 62¢ $30 19h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $29 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 34h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 34h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 34h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $39 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $39 20d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $17 20d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $17 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $21 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $0 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $0 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $17 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $21 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $18 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $10 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $29 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $39 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $39 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.34 · official $0.00 (match) · 132 history records