Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:59:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
35 0x3565…0b17 sports 1046 markets active 6h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,170 (+3%) realized +$6,170 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%532W / 513L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day22.1pace
Fees−$1,327est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$688
7 days−$776
14 days+$134
30 days+$1,899
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$5,064
other 36% +$1,255
world 1% −$1,154
crypto 1% −$261
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +24.9% +13.0% 48% 48% -11.6%
≤30d 97 +14.3% +3.4% 52% 51% -6.6%
≤90d 1045 -2.0% -11.3% 51% 49% -7.1%
all 1045 -2.0% -11.3% 51% 49% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 49% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 48% -16.0%
15% -27.5% 45% -24.1%
20% -34.6% 41% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$123 vs −$118 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6,170
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses532 / 513
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$1,327
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1045 / 1046
History coverage86d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day22.1
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1045 Trades
no open positions (429 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $507 +$386 +76%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,318 −$1,300 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,523 +$1,602 +105%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,270 −$1,250 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,447 +$936 +65%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $254 −$250 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $404 −$400 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $2,528 +$1,436 +57%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $153 +$275 +180%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$101 +980%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $1,369 −$1,350 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $181 +$44 +24%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $256 +$755 +295%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $659 −$39 -6%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $453 −$450 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $273 −$166 -61%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $609 −$600 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $305 +$426 +140%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,521 −$2,500 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $403 −$11 -3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $965 −$280 -29%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,427 +$1,383 +57%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $181 +$47 +26%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,114 −$1,100 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $427 +$550 +129%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $600 +$646 +108%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,476 +$1,152 +78%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $681 −$500 -73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2,712 +$2,712 +100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 13 $30 −$1 -3%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $71 −$9 -13%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $175 −$9 -5%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2,535 −$2,500 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $506 +$342 +68%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,820 −$1,800 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $112 −$110 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2,119 +$922 +44%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $407 +$126 +31%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $101 +$58 +57%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $204 −$8 -4%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $197 −$195 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,216 +$992 +82%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $61 +$121 +197%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $1,516 −$1,500 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $36 −$35 -98%
CD Limache vs. CD Coquimbo Unido: O/U 2.5 May 31 $76 −$75 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $729 +$352 +48%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $1,609 +$366 +23%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $213 −$210 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $507 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $1,318 5h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $508 28h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $1,016 28h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $153 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $1,116 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $254 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $404 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 60¢ $1,012 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Egypt 100¢ $3,964 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 60¢ $435 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $428 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $153 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $111 3d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 63¢ $2,528 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $152 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $1,217 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 50¢ $476 3d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 76¢ $453 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 80¢ $181 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $51 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $507 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 48¢ $145 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $162 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $10 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $609 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $51 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $152 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $51 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 73¢ $1,311 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2466 history records