Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:22:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

35
0x3566…6c64
crypto · 26 markets active 0h ago
2.5score
+$2 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$4
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses14 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)23 / 26
History coverage3d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 3 History 23 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Down 83¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 46¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Up 59¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 $0 -24%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +223%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +114%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 51% +$2
other 36% −$2
sports 13% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 16m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $0 18m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 3h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 12h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 24h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 24h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 24h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 25h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +13.3% +2.5% 61% 52% -3.9%
≤30d 23 +13.3% +2.5% 61% 52% -3.9%
≤90d 23 +13.3% +2.5% 61% 52% -3.9%
all 23 +13.3% +2.5% 61% 52% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.5% 52% -3.9%
10% -7.3% 43% -13.1%
15% -16.3% 43% -21.5%
20% -24.5% 26% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.15 · official $4.15 (match) · 50 history records