Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:57:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
35 0x3568…072a crypto 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$78 (+1%) realized +$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate60%65W / 44L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% +$73
other 16% −$2
politics 9% +$8
economics 7% $0
tech 4% −$1
world 3% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 5 +0.0% -9.5% 60% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 26 +0.0% -9.5% 54% 0% -9.5%
all 109 -0.6% -10.1% 60% 3% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 3% -9.0%
10% -18.7% 2% -17.7%
15% -26.6% 1% -25.7%
20% -33.8% 1% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.29 per $1 lost it wins $3.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$177
Realized+$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses65 / 44
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage244d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $177 $177 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 28 $177 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $72 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 17 $177 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on May 26? Jun 17 $177 $0 +0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 26 $177 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 19? May 26 $76 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 19? May 26 $101 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $176 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 13? May 19 $176 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 13 $176 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on April 28? May 13 $177 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 28 $177 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 24? Apr 28 $177 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $176 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $176 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $176 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 19? Apr 23 $176 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 19 $176 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 13? Apr 19 $176 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 13 $176 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 7? Apr 13 $176 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $176 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on March 31? Apr 07 $176 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 31 $176 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on March 28? Mar 31 $176 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $176 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $176 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 27 $176 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 25? Mar 27 $176 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 25 $175 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 22? Mar 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 22 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 18? Mar 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 18 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 17? Mar 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 17 $100 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 9-15? Mar 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 15 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 12? Mar 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 12 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 9? Mar 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 09 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 6? Mar 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 06 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on March 2? Mar 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 02 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 1? Mar 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 01 $198 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 10? Mar 01 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $177 1h
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $177 1h
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $177 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $72 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $105 10d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $177 10d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $177 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $177 32d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $177 32d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $177 32d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $76 40d
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $101 40d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $176 40d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $176 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $176 46d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $176 46d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $176 46d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $177 61d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $176 61d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $177 61d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $177 64d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $176 64d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $176 64d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 23? BUY No 100¢ $176 65d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $176 65d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $176 65d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $176 69d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $176 69d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $176 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $176 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.61 · official $176.52 (match) · 272 history records