Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:59:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3569…6d1f other 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 301d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate42%19W / 26L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$1
other 26% +$1
politics 16% $0
finance 8% $0
crypto 4% $0
sports 4% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.5% -8.2% 44% 11% -9.0%
≤30d 15 -0.0% -9.5% 33% 7% -9.4%
≤90d 15 -0.0% -9.5% 33% 7% -9.4%
all 45 -0.1% -9.6% 42% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 2% -9.2%
10% -18.2% 0% -17.9%
15% -26.1% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

301d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses19 / 26
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage301d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 69¢ 69¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 49¢ 52¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $33 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 22 $63 −$1 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $2 $0 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $63 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $33 +$1 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +12%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $20 −$2 -9%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $43 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $10 −$1 -9%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $42 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 25 $26 +$2 +6%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 14 $7 +$1 +7%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 05 $5 $0 +4%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? Oct 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 30 $5 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Sep 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $4 $0 +1%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 11 $3 $0 +8%
Will Elon tweet between 200 and 219 times September 5–12? Sep 11 $5 $0 -3%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 10 $28 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 08 $6 $0 -2%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Sep 02 $2 −$1 -24%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 28 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 28 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $33 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 28 $37 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in August? Aug 27 $36 $0 +1%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Aug 27 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $30 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $37 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $9 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $24 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $33 13h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $0 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $2 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $22 40h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $11 40h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $33 40h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $6 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $24 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 93¢ $30 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $3 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $27 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $30 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $4 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $26 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $31 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $31 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $17 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $14 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $21 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $12 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $33 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.21 · official $6.90 (match) · 152 history records