trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | +5.3% | -4.8% | 100% | 0% | -4.8% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +2.4% | -7.3% | 100% | 0% | -7.5% |
| all | 18 | +0.3% | -9.3% | 56% | 22% | -63.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.3% | 22% | -63.3% |
| 10% | -17.9% | 22% | -66.8% |
| 15% | -25.9% | 22% | -70.0% |
| 20% | -33.1% | 22% | -72.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | $92 | $100 | +$7 (+8%) |
| Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? | No | 50¢ | 94¢ | $25 | $47 | +$22 (+87%) |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? | No | 53¢ | 52¢ | $42 | $42 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 50¢ | 6¢ | $25 | $3 | −$22 (-87%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? | Jun 06 | $95 | +$5 | +5% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? | May 14 | $98 | +$2 | +2% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 6? | Apr 26 | $110 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 29? | Jan 29 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 27? | Jan 28 | $100 | $0 | +0% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? | Jan 26 | $23 | $0 | +0% |
| Magic vs. Raptors | Dec 29 | $442 | −$442 | -100% |
| Warriors vs. Raptors | Dec 28 | $3,720 | −$3,720 | -100% |
| Nuggets vs. Magic | Dec 28 | $304 | +$496 | +163% |
| Cavaliers vs. Rockets | Dec 28 | $915 | +$585 | +64% |
| Mavericks vs. Kings | Dec 28 | $697 | +$1,003 | +144% |
| Suns vs. Pelicans | Dec 26 | $216 | −$216 | -100% |
| Suns vs. Kings | Nov 27 | $532 | −$532 | -100% |
| Magic vs. 76ers | Nov 25 | $902 | −$902 | -100% |
| Timberwolves vs. Kings | Nov 25 | $304 | +$1,296 | +426% |
| Heat vs. Bulls | Nov 21 | $5,500 | −$5,500 | -100% |
| Bulls vs. Trail Blazers | Nov 20 | $312 | −$312 | -100% |
| ATP World Tour Finals, Bjorn Borg Group: Ben Shelton vs Felix Auger-Al | Nov 12 | $660 | −$660 | -100% |