Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:33:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x356d…faf8 other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$32 (-9%) realized −$28 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate61%23W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$15
14 days+$29
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$11
world 23% −$55
sports 13% +$1
crypto 3% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +9.9% -0.6% 60% 55% +0.9%
≤30d 37 +6.3% -3.8% 62% 59% +1.4%
≤90d 38 +3.5% -6.3% 61% 58% -18.7%
all 38 +3.5% -6.3% 61% 58% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 58% -18.7%
10% -15.3% 55% -26.5%
15% -23.5% 50% -33.6%
20% -31.0% 37% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$28
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses23 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage116d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $5 +$7 +129%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 +$10 +188%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 +$4 +76%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 +$7 +129%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 +$3 +50%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$12 +121%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +51%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +29%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +129%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 16 $20 +$5 +27%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 28 $60 −$60 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 28h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 32h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 39h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 2d
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 3d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 3d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 8d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.18 · official $41.18 (match) · 82 history records