Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:16:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3572…9d39 crypto 84 markets active 3d ago coverage 598d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,303 (-24%) realized −$4,303 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate64%54W / 30L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3,916
14 days−$3,916
30 days−$3,916
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$1,084
other 22% −$3,773
politics 5% +$15
sports 2% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -7.7% -16.5% 63% 53% -31.5%
≤30d 76 -7.7% -16.5% 63% 53% -31.5%
≤90d 76 -7.7% -16.5% 63% 53% -31.5%
all 84 -7.2% -16.0% 64% 50% -33.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 50% -33.8%
10% -24.1% 40% -40.1%
15% -31.4% 29% -45.9%
20% -38.1% 21% -51.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$279 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

598d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,303
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses54 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)84 / 84
History coverage598d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 84 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $965 −$960 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $464 −$454 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,867 −$2,832 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $312 +$112 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $210 +$48 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $204 +$136 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $413 +$382 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $102 +$48 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $445 −$445 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $349 −$331 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $105 +$22 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $417 +$48 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $617 +$385 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $386 −$278 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $104 +$22 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $208 +$143 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $299 −$262 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $322 −$307 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $209 +$108 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $105 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $112 +$31 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $106 −$51 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $136 +$43 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $78 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $104 +$36 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $162 +$19 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $207 +$61 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $215 +$88 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $195 −$118 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $329 +$107 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$20 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $74 +$50 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 11 $101 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 11 $43 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $151 +$47 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $52 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $206 −$206 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $121 −$121 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $52 +$14 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $423 +$256 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $207 +$119 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $101 −$97 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 711 history records