Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:52:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3573…909f sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$389 (-54%) realized −$386 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip
Net edge-67%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$300
14 days−$422
30 days−$422
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$186
other 20% −$142
crypto 14% −$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-67.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -51.6% -56.2% 33% 33% -65.2%
≤30d 8 -63.7% -67.1% 25% 25% -72.1%
≤90d 8 -63.7% -67.1% 25% 25% -72.1%
all 8 -63.7% -67.1% 25% 25% -72.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -67.1% 25% -72.1%
10% -70.3% 25% -74.8%
15% -73.2% 25% -77.2%
20% -75.8% 0% -79.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -69% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -64% · $-wt -69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$80 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$386
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage9d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 44¢ 42¢ $97 $94 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $30 +$14 +46%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $100 +$44 +44%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $100 −$98 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $26 −$26 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $120 −$118 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $120 −$117 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 −$97 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$24 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $100 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 70¢ $100 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 67¢ $30 3h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 68¢ $100 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $26 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $120 6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $120 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $100 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.06 · official $94.06 (match) · 12 history records