Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:13:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
35 0x3573…f375 politics 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$61 (-0%) realized −$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 29L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$975per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$61
14 days−$64
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 86% −$91
other 7% −$2
economics 3% −$1
world 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -6.0% -15.0% 0% 0% -11.3%
≤30d 11 -1.8% -11.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 29 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 29 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$983) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$3 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage65d
Avg bet$975
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $890 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $322 −$58 -18%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,908 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $949 −$2 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $947 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $950 −$1 -0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $956 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $952 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $958 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $954 −$2 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $958 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $962 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $964 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $964 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $966 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $948 −$1 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $974 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 08 $970 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $971 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 04 $976 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $976 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $975 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $983 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 26 $984 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $985 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $986 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $986 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $987 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $988 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $890 1h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $890 24h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $264 2d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $322 4d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $946 5d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $948 6d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $947 7d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $949 9d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $945 10d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $947 11d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $948 15d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $950 16d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $955 17d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $956 18d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $951 19d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $952 20d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $957 22d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $958 22d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $953 24d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $954 25d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $956 26d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $958 26d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $959 28d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $960 28d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $961 30d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $962 31d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $962 32d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $964 32d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $963 34d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $964 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 107 history records