Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:17:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
35 0x3575…de88 crypto 127 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$195 (+24%) realized +$162 · open +$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%60W / 53L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$110
7 days+$154
14 days+$168
30 days+$149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% +$94
sports 28% +$53
crypto 26% +$30
finance 6% +$12
world 2% −$7
tech 2% +$2
politics 1% −$2
weather 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +49.5% +35.3% 62% 62% +43.1%
≤30d 88 +13.9% +3.1% 56% 53% +14.3%
≤90d 113 +8.4% -1.9% 53% 50% +10.2%
all 113 +8.4% -1.9% 53% 50% +10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 50% +10.2%
10% -11.3% 50% -0.4%
15% -19.9% 48% -10.0%
20% -27.7% 42% -18.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized+$162
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses60 / 53
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions14
Markets (closed)113 / 127
History coverage52d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 68¢ $18 $21 +$3 (+14%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 100¢ $5 $20 +$15 (+300%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Yes 40¢ 84¢ $8 $17 +$9 (+109%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 62¢ 100¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+61%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 52¢ 40¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+22%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 42¢ 100¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+138%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 42¢ 28¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-32%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+32%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? No 20¢ 25¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+25%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 43¢ 38¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-13%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-16%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$3 +56%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +92%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +49%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$5 +96%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$6 +122%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$37 +248%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 +$8 +196%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$3 +85%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +69%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $4 +$7 +173%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $8 +$49 +646%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $7 +$3 +39%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $6 +$6 +108%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$9 +289%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $9 +$9 +100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $9 +$9 +100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +103%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 +$6 +113%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8 +$13 +157%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $64 +$26 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 07 $4 +$4 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 07 $3 +$3 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 07 $3 +$3 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 07 $4 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 02 $8 +$7 +85%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? Jun 01 $10 +$8 +78%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 3 Arsenal FC? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $23 $0 +1%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $17 +$11 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 30, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 30 $23 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 29 $2 +$1 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 42¢ $3 58m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $10 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 11h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $5 11h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 11h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5 24h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $5 24h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $5 24h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $14 34h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 42¢ $10 34h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 34h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 39h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 43h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $5 43h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 43h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 43h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $4 43h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $5 43h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $7 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $15 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $7 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 2d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $9 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $3 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $6 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 37¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.99 · official $127.00 (match) · 283 history records