Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:56:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

35
0x3578…8c5f
other · 60 markets active 0h ago
4.5score
+$554 +25%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$553 · open −$68
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$1,078
Realized+$553
Unrealized−$68
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions44
Markets (closed)16 / 60
History coverage587d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit20%
Chart Positions 44 History 16 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 56¢ 44¢ $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 94¢ $50 $62 +$12 (+25%)
Will USA be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 73¢ 86¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+19%)
Will Kai Havertz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 82¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Will Nick Woltemade score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 59¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will South Korea be the worst-placed Asian nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 96¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will Leandro Trossard score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 64¢ $60 $49 −$11 (-19%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 76¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Alexander Sørloth score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 70¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-7%)
Will Kenan Yıldız score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 60¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 84¢ 99¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+18%)
Will Uzbekistan be the worst-placed Asian nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 92¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 97¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Viktor Gyökeres score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Florian Wirtz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Weston McKennie score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 57¢ $26 $20 −$6 (-24%)
Will Darwin Nunez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Erling Haaland score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 78¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Qatar be the worst-placed Asian nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 84¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Kai Havertz score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 54¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Son Heung-min score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 70¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
World Cup: Scoreless Team? Yes 83¢ 79¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 −$2 -93%
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 $0 -2%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$4 +83%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $8 +$7 +92%
Will the announcers say "Yellow Card" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Jun 13 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$14 +276%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Luis Diaz sign with a new club during the transfer window? Feb 16 $20 +$4 +18%
Will Chelsea win in regulation? Feb 16 $10 +$46 +456%
Will Julián Alvarez sign with a new club during the transfer window? Feb 16 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Feb 16 $50 +$142 +285%
Will Alexander Isak sign with a new club during the transfer window? Jul 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Chelsea win in extra time? Jul 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Chelsea win in penalties? Jul 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jul 11 $600 +$436 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 65% +$46
politics 27% +$436
sports 7% +$4
culture 1% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 27m
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 76¢ $5 28m
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 57¢ $10 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 83¢ $10 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $10 1h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over $0 1h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $2 2h
Will Qatar be the worst-placed Asian nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 87¢ $2 7h
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $51 7h
Will Qatar be the worst-placed Asian nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 87¢ $3 7h
Will Qatar be the worst-placed Asian nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 87¢ $15 7h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 8h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 8h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 63¢ $20 8h
World Cup: Scoreless Team? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 8h
Will Christian Pulisic score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 8h
Will Florian Wirtz score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 8h
Will Erling Haaland score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 8h
Will Kai Havertz score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 8h
Will Leandro Trossard score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 8h
Will Weston McKennie score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 8h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $3 26h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 27h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $5 27h
Will the announcers say "Yellow Card" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA SELL Yes 99¢ $103 27h
Will Weston McKennie score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 35h
Will Darwin Nunez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 35h
Will Son Heung-min score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+35.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +32.5% +19.9% 62% 38% -6.4%
≤30d 8 +32.5% +19.9% 62% 38% -6.4%
≤90d 8 +32.5% +19.9% 62% 38% -6.4%
all 16 +49.9% +35.6% 62% 44% +36.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +35.6% 44% +36.8%
10% +22.7% 38% +23.7%
15% +10.8% 38% +11.7%
20% -0.1% 38% +0.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,077.53 · official $1,077.54 (match) · 85 history records