Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:30:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

35
0x357b…6d41
sports · 110 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$239 -25%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$237 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Chart Positions 6 History 104 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$27
14 days−$43
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Dayana Yastremska 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 52¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FURIA 60¢ 63¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+5%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 52¢ 52¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 51¢ 38¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Leviatán Esports 34¢ 34¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Yes 57¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Thunder 65¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 59¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Cincinnati Reds 59¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Valorant: DRX vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs DRX 59¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Milwaukee Brewers 65¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs Rex Regum Qeon 50¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Stage 2 LOUD 37¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 85¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Valorant: All Gamers vs FunPlus Phoenix (BO3) - China Evolution Series Act 2 Playoffs FunPlus Phoenix 33¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 64¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 60¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 65¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Thunder 58¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Valorant: LOUD vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha Cloud9 56¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Game 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? Odd $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha Nongshim RedForce 75¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 58¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Valorant: TYLOO vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - China Evolution Series Act 2 Playoffs Bilibili Gaming 28¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $6 +$3 +43%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) Jun 11 $15 +$6 +41%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 09 $18 −$18 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $14 +$8 +60%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $7 +$4 +52%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $16 +$5 +34%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $3 +$2 +65%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $14 −$13 -96%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $8 +$5 +64%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 01 $9 −$9 -95%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 01 $5 −$5 -95%
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Sta Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros May 31 $25 +$5 +20%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) May 30 $5 −$5 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $30 +$29 +95%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -53%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 28 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) May 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 27 $5 +$3 +64%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) May 27 $5 −$5 -95%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants May 27 $5 −$4 -95%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 27 $9 +$1 +12%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 27 $5 +$5 +89%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $13 +$4 +27%
Valorant: TYLOO vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - China Evolution Series Act May 26 $5 −$5 -94%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Ch May 26 $4 −$4 -94%
Valorant: JD Gaming vs Nova Esports (BO3) - China Evolution Series Act May 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $6 +$4 +66%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $6 +$2 +37%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 26 $17 $0 -0%
Valorant: All Gamers vs FunPlus Phoenix (BO3) - China Evolution Series May 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $9 +$4 +39%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 May 25 $21 +$3 +14%
Valorant: Global Esports vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs DRX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Pacific Qual May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs DRX (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha May 24 $6 −$4 -64%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Team Envy (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group A May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi May 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $5 −$2 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 91% −$210
weather 3% +$10
other 3% −$23
crypto 2% −$16
politics 1% −$4
tech 1% +$5
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $5 2h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 52¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 60¢ $7 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 34¢ $3 2h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 51¢ $5 8h
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 67¢ $10 8h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets SELL New York Mets 87¢ $9 14h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 60¢ $6 15h
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) SELL Spurs 97¢ $21 32h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 58¢ $5 36h
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) BUY Spurs 68¢ $15 36h
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 65¢ $18 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks $0 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 39¢ $5 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 62¢ $14 3d
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai BUY Edmen Shahbazyan 39¢ $5 5d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins BUY Tampa Bay Rays 16¢ $5 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $5 6d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $7 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $5 6d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 43¢ $5 7d
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 60¢ $3 7d
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 64¢ $10 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 85¢ $14 8d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 58¢ $8 8d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Hurricanes 59¢ $9 8d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 60¢ $11 9d
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 65¢ $9 10d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 60¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -40.2% -45.9% 40% 40% -36.4%
≤30d 70 -25.7% -32.7% 44% 44% -24.3%
≤90d 104 -28.1% -35.0% 41% 40% -34.1%
all 104 -28.1% -35.0% 41% 40% -34.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.0% 40% -34.1%
10% -41.2% 35% -40.4%
15% -46.9% 28% -46.2%
20% -52.1% 18% -51.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.87 · official $39.78 (match) · 214 history records