Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:42:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x357e…9874 crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$440 (+37%) realized +$440 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate16%3W / 16L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day35.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$59
sports 4% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)+20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +32.6% +20.0% 16% 16% -8.8%
≤30d 19 +32.6% +20.0% 16% 16% -8.8%
≤90d 19 +32.6% +20.0% 16% 16% -8.8%
all 19 +32.6% +20.0% 16% 16% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.0% 16% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here +8.5% 16% -17.5%
15% -2.0% 16% -25.5%
20% -11.6% 16% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +128% → late -54% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$277 vs −$51 · ×5.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$440
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses3 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 29 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 29 $345 −$325 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 29 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 29 $105 −$34 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 29 $139 −$139 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 29 $106 −$8 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 29 $105 +$244 +232%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 29 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 29 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 29 $27 −$3 -12%
Brazil vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? Jun 29 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 29 $34 +$544 +1594%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$43 +173%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $349 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $39 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $23 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $27 10h
Brazil vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records